July 21, 2005

from "Curtis Johnstone" <[email protected]>, Sun, 24 Jul 2005 22:12:28 -0400

Replies:

gerald
johnf

Parents:

None.

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Ladies and Gentlemen - July 21, 2005 passed by like any other day with
little buzz in the computing world. Unbeknownst to the average person, this
date represented somewhat of an epoch in computing history. Yes, it was on
this day 5 years ago that our good friend and Linux evangelist Gerald
Oskoboiny declared that "I have no doubt whatsoever that Linux will conquer
the desktop market within 3-5 years"
(http://impressive.net/archives/fogo/[email protected]).

Microsoft still has approximately 90% of the desktop market.. :-)

Having said that, Linux as definitely evolved and gained some traction: a
substantial piece of the web server pie and several viable mass desktop
distributions like Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntulinux.org/). And for the record
I can't say I have been impressed with Microsoft's innovation or evolution
during this time frame - they seem hell bend on gobbling up every software
business niche and lack focus on serious innovative thinking and nimble
delivery. I recently had a very painful experience with a trial version of
Microsoft's personal digital imagining software. I uninstalled it after
trying to use it for 2 hours. I installed Google's Picasa2 and it was
wonderful. I wish Microsoft would let the software world flourish by
focusing on core innovation. Having said that, for a public company with
billions in the coffers their overall consistent delivery is still amazing.
Hopefully Ray Ozzie (formerly of Groove networks - now a Microsoft CTO) will
have a positive impact.

The next 5 years should be interesting. The desktop should matter less with
the emergence of new mass communications devices (Blackberries, cell
phones).

Curtis

http://impressive.net/archives/fogo/[email protected]

I just surfed around GNOME and Advogato a bit, and these guys are
doing some amazing work with GNOME and Linux in general. I have
no doubt whatsoever that Linux will conquer the desktop market
within 3-5 years, maybe as soon as 2 years.

http://www.gnome.org/
http://www.advogato.org/
http://www.advogato.org/person/ger/

I actually hope Microsoft doesn't get busted up by the government, so Linux
can take over just by virtue of being better.

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<div class=3DSection1>

Ladies and Gentlemen – July 21, 2005 passed by =
like
any other day with little buzz in the computing world. Unbeknownst to =
the
average person, this date represented somewhat of an epoch in computing
history. Yes, it was on this day 5 years ago that our good friend and =
Linux
evangelist <st1:PersonName w:st=3D"on">Gerald Oskoboiny</st1:PersonName> =
declared
that “I have no doubt whatsoever that Linux will conquer the =
desktop
market within 3-5 years” =
(http://impressive.net/archives/fogo/[email protected])=
.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Microsoft still has approximately 90% of the desktop =
market….
J =
<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Having said that, Linux as definitely evolved and =
gained
some traction: a substantial piece of the web server pie and several =
viable mass
desktop distributions like Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntulinux.org/). And for =
the
record I can’t say I have been impressed with Microsoft’s
innovation or evolution during this time frame – they seem hell =
bend on
gobbling up every software business niche and lack focus on serious =
innovative
thinking and nimble delivery. I recently had a very painful experience =
with a
trial version of Microsoft’s personal digital imagining software. =
I
uninstalled it after trying to use it for 2 hours. I installed =
Google’s
Picasa2 and it was wonderful. I wish Microsoft would let the software =
world
flourish by focusing on core innovation. Having said that, for a public =
company
with billions in the coffers their overall consistent delivery is still =
amazing.
Hopefully Ray Ozzie (formerly of Groove networks – now a Microsoft =
CTO) will
have a positive impact.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

The next 5 years should be interesting. The desktop =
should
matter less with the emergence of new mass communications devices
(Blackberries, cell phones).<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Curtis<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

http://impressive.net/archives/fogo/20000721104931.B79=
[email protected]<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

<pre>I just surfed around GNOME and Advogato a bit, and =
these guys are<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>doing some amazing work =
with GNOME and Linux in general. I =
have<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>no doubt whatsoever that =
Linux will conquer the desktop =
market<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>within 3-5 years, maybe as =
soon as 2 years.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></fo=
nt></pre><pre>    <a
href=3D"http://www.gnome.org/">http://www.gnome.org/</a><o:p></o:p></span=
></pre><pre>    <a
href=3D"http://www.advogato.org/">http://www.advogato.org/</a><o:p></o:p>=
</pre><pre>    <a
href=3D"http://www.advogato.org/person/ger/">http://www.advogato.org/pers=
on/ger/</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></fo=
nt></pre><pre>I actually hope Microsoft =
doesn't get busted up by the government, so Linux can take over just by =
virtue of being better.<o:p></o:p></pre>

<o:p> </o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

</div>

</body>

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Re: July 21, 2005

from Gerald Oskoboiny <[email protected]>, Tue, 26 Jul 2005 01:23:37 -0400

Replies:

johnf

Parents:

curtisj

* Curtis Johnstone <[email protected]> [2005-07-24 22:12-0400]
> Ladies and Gentlemen - July 21, 2005 passed by like any other day with
> little buzz in the computing world. Unbeknownst to the average person, this
> date represented somewhat of an epoch in computing history. Yes, it was on
> this day 5 years ago that our good friend and Linux evangelist Gerald
> Oskoboiny declared that "I have no doubt whatsoever that Linux will conquer
> the desktop market within 3-5 years"
> (http://impressive.net/archives/fogo/[email protected]).

Yeah, yeah :)

At the time I wrote that, Linux companies had been getting funded
left and right and the trend seemed unstoppable, but the dot com
bust took away a lot of its momentum.

So it's taking a bit longer than I expected, but it will happen,
unless MacOS X does it first. (a fine product, if you don't value
your freedom ;)

> Microsoft still has approximately 90% of the desktop market.. :-)

That's nothing to smile about!

They also have approximately 99.999% of the spam zombie market...

:
> The next 5 years should be interesting. The desktop should matter less with
> the emergence of new mass communications devices (Blackberries, cell
> phones).

I think Linux will also do well in markets like PVRs, routers and
other internet appliances people will have around the house. I am
really surprised that nobody has succeeded yet at making and
selling cheap internet devices based on Linux.

--
Gerald Oskoboiny <[email protected]>
http://impressive.net/people/gerald/

Re: July 21, 2005

from John Marrett <[email protected]>, Tue, 26 Jul 2005 06:37:51 -0400

Replies:

None.

Parents:

Gerald Oskoboiny wrote:

>I think Linux will also do well in markets like PVRs, routers and
>other internet appliances people will have around the house. I am
>really surprised that nobody has succeeded yet at making and
>selling cheap internet devices based on Linux.
>
>
>
I would consider the Linksys WRT54g, as well as it's competitors and
peers to meet this qualification quite well. Even more importantly they
have brought the freedom and power associated with it new scale of
consumer class device.

And the device that popularized the PVR, TiVo, is also based on linux.

That said, no, Linux is not quite cleaning up the desktop market like I
had also imagined, but forward progress is still being made.

-JohnF