Curtis pointed me towards IDC, written up in detail on this site:
http://telecomtechstocks.com/
Which seems to include lots of interesting bits on various
telecom companies and technology.
Currently the home page says:
FOCUS STOCK: InterDigital Communications Corp. (IDC)
From the Net's "Message Boards":Future Earnings and The Case for
InterDigital
Highlights of earnings information you can find in this "Focus
Stock" report..
barchart.com: "IDC shows overall 96% in its "buy" indicators
after share price breakthrough." But, of course, prudent
investors will be sure to review the section on "Risks" in this
report as part of your due diligence.
InterDigital Communications Corporation (AMEX-IDC) is our current
focus. Find out about this super quiet, undiscovered (until now)
company that owns the basic technology patents (TDMA and GSM) for
the operating system in most of the world's digital cell phones.
PLUS - has the world's most experienced engineers in wideband
CDMA development (third generation wireless technology). PLUS -
Nokia is giving them $40 million for their W-CDMA advice! PLUS -
has $76 million in cash! PLUS - Licensing revenues of $145
million! PLUS - likely acquisition target!! Risks? You decide!
Click here for one of the most informative reports on this
company you will find anywhere on the Net.
"Message boards" above links to:
http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=IDC&read=14312
which says:
By: Bill_Dalglish
Reply To: None
Wednesday, 24 Nov 1999 at 3:24 AM EST
Post # of 17453
The case for buying InterDigital, in a nut shell
Over on Yahoo, "Finstats" asked one of the key questions
reasonable investors should be inquiring about as they make a
decision on whether to purchase IDC shares or add to their
present positions. Finstats, Hi!
He posted: "I am struggling to understand the revenue growth
potential as well. It seems TDMA has passed and we are now
focusing on CDMA, however QCOM beat us to that punch. Now we are
focusing on 3G, more specifically BCDMA or WCDMA however, it is
my understanding that it will be implemented in Japan in late
2001 and 2 - 3 years later in Europe. This seems like an eternity
in the IT world. Help me out here. Is it that our revenues will
come from traditional TDMA patents we hold which will utltimately
be enforced due to litigation or settlement? I am struggling with
how we will get a QCOM valuation with $90 million of revs."
You ask an important question, Finstats, and demonstrate you are
really doing your homework. Congratulations!
I'll put on my CFP cap for a moment and suggest this response.
Its a bit lengthy, but I hope it is well organized and useful to
make the basic case for IDC's future revenue streams. I have to
put that in context, tho, so I ask you to bear with me while I do
that, too. (My references are to sources at
www.TelecomTechStocks.com)
1. There are 2 types of cell phones in the world, 1. analog and
2. digital I assume you are familiar with how we got from analog
to digital and why. In case someone unfamiliar with that wants to
know, see a beginners level treatment of that briefly at:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/nontechies.htm#analog
2. The world has been switching from analog to digital cell
phones because; a. digital is clearer and more efficient and can
offer more services and therefore more revenue to telecoms
(that's what they are boyyom line there for - revenue and
earnings for shareholders
b. There's not enough radio spectrum available to possibly
service all potential users if they are using analog because
analogue takes up much more limited spectrum to do much less c.
Data transmision is coming at us fast (Internet etc). Need
digital to do that. Second generation (2G) can do some of that
now using both TDMA/GSM or CDMA see:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/nontechies.htm#history
3. From a worldview, the U S is completely atypical re: digital
phone distribution and use. We are a big mess. TDMA competes with
CDMA which competes with PSC (Sprint etc). You need dual mode or
triple mode phones to get around here. Europe and Asia (except
Japan and Korea) are all using the same digital tech and don't
want to fall into the U S problem so they work hard to keep
everybody the same. They use a varient of TDMA, which is called
GSM. Frankly, if anyone is a shareholder in a wireless
communications company and doesn't know what GSM is, you haven't
done your due diligence. Quit what you're doing and read this
easy to understand and brief article, its essential info:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/nontechies.htm#compatibility
4. 85% of digital phones worldwide are TDMA or its cousin, GSM.
The other 15% are almost all Qualcomm's CDMA phones (I have one
and like it) and those are almost all in the U S and Korea, where
they have great market share and give U S investors the idea that
Qualcomm has the keys to the castle. Phooey! See these couple of
important paragraphs at:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/expand.htm
5. (Finally the meat of all this - we took the scenic route to
get into context better) InterDigital developed TDMA and its
cousin GSM years ago and have been making refinements ever since.
(IDC has 800 patents worldwide). Remember, 85% of the world is on
TDMA or GSM. The actions of the U S Pagtent office announced on
Monday by IDC confirms this very bold and important claim: You
can't do TDMA or GSM without using InterDigital's patents.
Motorola in 1995 won a court case that all observers thought was
a travesty of justice. Jurors understood next to nothing about
the technology (and had to send word to the judge during their
deliberations: "What's the difference between a wireless cell
phone and a regular phone like we have at home.") (Importantly,
since that trial, by Supreme Court edict in "Markman", jurors are
now told by a court asppointed expert (who hears testimony before
the trial) whether patents are valid etc.) This Motorola stuff is
a very important part of IDC's history and has affected its share
price ever since. IDC shareholders NEED to understand what
happened. Here''s a very brief report on that Motorola debacle
(oops, this is another brief but very important (altho ugly)
sight along our scenic jorney:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/motorola.htm
Monday's announcement on patent revalidations means the Motorola
case jury was dead wrong. Motorola may be able to get by, but no
one else will now. IDC's extremely capable patent attorneys in
Texas (Fulbright & Jaworski Group) will be hounding them to death
now with Monday's decision and a decision on the European Appeals
court level last year that says the almost the same thing. So now
we're covered in U S and Europe. (Asians generally have been
paying up already, except for Sony and Fujitsu - and they will
pay, I believe, as IDC now has the clout to make them pay). No
more "Mr. Nice guy." We've got everybody now by the you know
whats and were not going to let go till they pay up worldwide.
That means this: Qualcomm licenses 60 manufacturers. IDC
currently licenses 23. Now were going after the remaining 37. And
not just for future use. We are demanding payment for the
hundreds of millions of TDMA or GSM phones and all the supporting
infrastructure THEY EVER MADE. Let's see 2% or 3% of umpteen
billions of dollars is... That's OURS! And we want it NOW! Were
offering good terms right now to anyone who signs on -- now that
we've got their attention with Monday's Patent announcement. But
if we have to sue them -- big bucks, baby! IDC has a war chest of
$75 million to get these 37 additional manufacturers to pay what
they already owe and continue on paying on what they will
manufacture. (Nokia paid $30 or $40 million to IDC this year. If
someone missed Monday's very important news from IDC (that made
IDC the largest volume and biggest price increase company traded
on the AMEX), it is MUST READING:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/latestnews.htm#patents
That means we've got one heck of a lot of revenue coming
(billions) from whats been made already around the world. Revenue
projections for IDC I've seen do not reflect any of this back due
royalty income and are therefore totally inadequate.
But that's just for back royalties! TDMA and GSM will be the far
predominant tech for the next five years. Hundreds of millions of
these products will be sold each year for years to come'. We will
get royalties on that. That's why we hired such great attorneys.
Very soon it will be indeed "No more Mr. Nice guy" time! See
recurring revenues for a brief addition to what I've said:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/recurrev.htm
6. Third Generation wireless will eventually come and that will
be exciting. This month the ITU announced Third Generation
international standards. (IMPORTANT, see:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/thirdgen.htm#Group
Telecom equipment designers and manufacturers can now start
working on future products. One of IDC's main thrusts now is to
help them design those products and sell them the basic "system
on a chip" we will help them design (25% profits on those chips).
This is BIG - Potential IDC investors have to understnad this new
paet of IDC's business activities, so this is brief but MUST
READING on IDC as an engineering consulting company (this
"engoineering support" is also in the new plan Qualcomm is
following very successfully):
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/engineer.htm
7. BUT (big "but") Not everyone will have 3G products all at
once, just as in the U S today some people have 1G (analog) and
some have 2G (digital). In a few years, 3G will come into the
market (IDC/NOKIA is developing the first products worldwide
right now in Japan for Japan's biggest (and hugely successful
financially) wireless, NTT DoCoMo). So everyone will need
wireless devices (many more products than just cell phones by
then) that can communicate between 2G digital (which are 85%
IDC's tech based TDMA or GSM and the new 3G stuff. Guess what?
No one, not even Qualcomm or Ericsson, will be able to make a
device that is dual mode (new 3G and TDMA/GSM 2G) WITHOUT USING
IDC's PATENTED TECHNOLOGY. If it can interface with any TDMA-GSM
product, then that product will include an interfacing component
licensed by InterDigital. The Company says it has been "extremely
active" (strong term from our mild-mannered attorney leadership)
in submitting interfacing and other tech and deciding upon what
tech will be approved for the new standards. IDC has had seats
on 2 of the 4 international policy committees. We've probably
been more active than anyone else in the world! And our stock
started its 104% rise last Thursday when interim President Howard
Goldberg shot that cannon ball across the bow. Those that
understood what Goldberg was saying started BUYING shares of IDC
- smart! If someone somehow missed that news, read it here. Its
revolutionary:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/focusstock/latestnews.htm#essential
Well, there's probably more to be said. But its 2:10 a.m. and
I've said enough! (You probably thought that a long time ago)
Where will IDC's earnings be coming from in future years to
enable it to grow like Qualcomm? If I haven't provided enough
clues above to that, I don't know what further to say. (But maybe
I'll think of something else in the morrow - but I hope not,
cause I've got to do my day job besides all this wonderfully
exciting IDC stuff).
Bill Dalglish
Since I'm a CFP, and these remarks are optimistic and forward
looking, its appropriate to include this important disclaimer
statement and to remind you that I, like many of you, own IDC
stock and I will benefit from its rise in share value if more
people keep buying it too. Link:
http://www.telecomtechstocks.com/disclaimer.htm
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT
Rating- Strong Buy)
I think I'll pick some up tomorrow.
--
Gerald Oskoboiny <
[email protected]>
http://impressive.net/people/gerald/